Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has secured a third consecutive term in a general election that was much closer than expected. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to fall short of a majority in the 543-seat parliament, falling below the required 272 seats, although coalition partners have gained additional seats. This result is a personal setback for Mr. Modi, who has consistently secured majorities as both the chief minister of Gujarat and India’s prime minister over the past decade.
The outcome marks an unexpected resurgence for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, contradicting earlier predictions of its decline and diverging sharply from exit polls and pre-election surveys. Over 640 million people participated in the seven-week election, which election authorities praised as a "world record," with nearly half of the voters being women.
Many world leaders have struggled in their third-term elections, and Mr. Modi is no exception. Despite the BJP remaining India’s largest party by seats, the substantial loss of over 50 seats dims the appeal of a third term, especially considering Mr. Modi's campaign goal of 400 coalition seats. This has led to celebration in the Congress camp and some disappointment within the BJP, as high expectations have left many supporters disheartened.
Supporters attribute Mr. Modi's third term to stable governance, the appeal of continuity, effective welfare programs, and the perception that he has enhanced India's global image. For his Hindu nationalist base, Mr. Modi delivered on key promises, such as revoking the autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir, building the Ram temple in Ayodhya, and implementing a controversial citizenship law. Many BJP-ruled states have also tightened regulations on interfaith marriages.
The BJP's significant drop in seats may be linked to issues like unemployment, rising prices, growing inequality, and a controversial army recruitment reform. Mr. Modi's divisive campaign, particularly targeting Muslims, may have alienated some voters. His ambitious slogan "Ab ki baar, 400 paar," aiming for more than 400 seats for his NDA alliance, might have backfired, raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor. The party faced its largest setback in Uttar Pradesh (UP), which holds significant sway in national politics.
Key takeaways from the election include a dent in Brand Modi, a return to coalition politics, a jolt to the dominant BJP, and a resurgent opposition. Mr. Modi’s popularity has been bolstered by his branding prowess and a weak opposition, but the election results show that even he is susceptible to anti-incumbency. The BJP will now be more dependent on allies, making it vulnerable if those allies feel neglected.
Mr. Modi's decade-long dominance has characterized India’s one-party dominant system, marked by a charismatic leader, unrivaled control over resources and communication, unmatched organizational machinery, and a fragmented opposition. However, Tuesday’s result has restored India to "normal politics," with a range of parties sharing and competing for power.
The Congress-led opposition, particularly the INDIA alliance, ran a spirited campaign and has renewed hope for future elections. The BJP, holding about a third of India’s state assembly seats, faces significant competition in upcoming state elections, including those in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, and Delhi.
A potential third term for Mr. Modi means much more work and some healing for India. Despite an upswing in the economy driven by government spending, inequality is rising, and more jobs are needed to increase private investment and consumption. Younger voters, making up a significant portion of the population, are likely to drift from the BJP if these issues are not addressed. Mr. Modi has faced criticism for marginalizing Muslims and stifling dissent, and a third term may bring unforeseen challenges that could impact his government’s plans.